Warming Into the 80s

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The unusually cool weather for the middle of August continues, as we remain under a broad upper level trough. Low level moisture has been plentiful in much of the state today, resulting in abundant cloud cover in all but the eastern quarter of the state, as well as the southwest corner. These clouds have kept temperatures well below average, and it has also put a general lid on convection. Aside from a couple of spotty showers through early evening, we’ll be mainly dry tonight as clouds try to break later on.

Tomorrow we anticipate dry weather around the viewing area as clouds do break for some sunshine. That should be enough to allow temperatures to recover into the lower 80s, though the dew points will remain in the mid 60s. One area of low pressure rolling by southeastern New England will take a good bit of the deeper moisture off the playing field, while a weaker low tries to form well east of Wilmington. There can be some spotty shower or thunderstorm activity along the coastal plain/Outer Banks, as well as in the mountains and foothills, but our area looks to remain rain-free.

Another dry day seems likely on Thursday with a bit more in the way of sunshine around the region. Though we can’t rule out a spotty afternoon thunderstorm, that appears to be more of a concern to our south near the path of another max moving across South Carolina/southeastern North Carolina. With the added sun, we should get a bit more of a boost in terms of high temperatures, inching up into the mid 80s. Still, that’s several degrees below normal for this time of the year, and a far cry from last week!

The next ‘big ticket’ item to examine later this week will be a vigorous upper level disturbance dropping southward out of Manitoba into the Dakotas and western Minnesota late Thursday and Thursday night. This is likely to carve out an upper level low over the Midwest. In response to that, our upper level flow will gradually shift more toward the west, then southwest on Friday. An upper level disturbance embedded within this southwest flow could well be the trigger mechanism for some shower and thunderstorm activity around the area on Friday, especially in the afternoon.

Heading into the weekend, the humidity levels come up. Dew points will climb to near 70 Friday, and go slowly up from there Saturday and Sunday. This will be the fuel for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, with the most like…


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