Higher Egg Prices and More Tariffs: What Betting Markets See for Inflation and Trade Policy
The Trump administration's tariff clash with key trading partners has heightened concerns across financial markets. Betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are reflecting this uncertainty, predicting that the European Union may soon become a target of US tariffs, with an 83% likelihood of implementing tariffs on the bloc by April 29. Following President Trump's recent tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, these speculators suggest heightened inflation is on the horizon, with egg prices projected to rise between $5.50 and $5.75 per dozen in February, up from $4.14 in December. Analyst forecasts suggest that overall consumer prices may continue to increase, with a 21% chance of the inflation rate reaching 2.6%-3% by the end of the year.