GOP abruptly warms to economy. Plus, who gets credit for the ceasefire?
Survey Says is a new weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
Republicans suddenly think the economy is on the up
Remember when President Donald Trump railed against the economy and promised he’d “fix” it? Apparently, for Republicans, all it took was Trump winning the election to decide the economy wasn’t so bad after all.
Polling from Civiqs shows that on Jan. 24, 2024, 66% of Republican voters rated the national economy as “very bad” and another 28% said it was “fairly bad”—numbers that remained fairly stable until Election Day 2024.
As of this past Wednesday, just 48% of Republican voters now believe the economy is “very bad,” according to Civiqs’ polling—an 18-percentage-point decrease. Many of them seem to have slipped to thinking the economy is just “fairly bad,” which increased by 13 points, to 41%.
On the one hand, this isn’t very surprising. Trump is experiencing a honeymoon period buoyed by Republicans’ excitement about his win in 2024. And while the reversal in voters’ attitudes is surely heady for Republican lawmakers now, it could backfire. Voters want to see lower prices under Trump, which suggests their views toward him could sour if that doesn’t happen.
And it’s looking dicey. In December, Trump admitted it would be “very hard” for him to lower grocery costs. Meanwhile, the price of eggs is soaring, and some major retailers are planning to raise their prices if Trump enacts his brutal, long-promised tariffs.
What’s sentiment like across the aisle, though? The share of Democrats who say the economy is in good shape is about the same as on Election Day, according to Civiqs: over 50% say it’s “fairly good” and around 20% say “very good.”
Republicans support price-raising tariffs
In October, Trump mused at a campaign event, “To me, the world’s most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs. It’s my favorite word. It needs a public relations firm.”
Trump is right about one thing: Americans aren’t keen on tariffs. Only 30% of registered voters have a favorable view of them, according to new polling from Navigator Research. Forty-three percent have an unfavorable view, while 27% are unsure.
Worse, a plurality of Republican registered voters (47%) think it’s likely tariffs will lead to higher prices on common goods. Majorities of independent (63%) and Democratic voters (85%) agree.
Earlier this week, Trump said he was considering imposing a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico as soon as Feb. 1. He’s also toying with implementing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports.
Voters expressed a variety of concerns over Trump’s plans, according to Navigator. Overall, 41% list cost increases on the middle class as a top concern, with 33% concerned that it would be “a new tax on almost everything we buy.” Another 29% are worried that foreign nations would retaliate by imposing tariffs of their own.
Partisan differences drove the results of the poll. Just 12% of Democrats say they view tariffs favorably, compared with 50% of Republicans who say the same. This is somewhat shocking considering a plurality of Republicans (41%) also say the tariffs, if enacted, would cause the cost of things to go up.
Republicans may be more pro-tariff because the proposal is coming from Trump. But what if they raise prices, as expected, or make America less competitive globally?
GOP voters seem to be ignoring these very likely realities and instead are holding onto hope that tariffs will help American jobs and manufacturing. According to the survey, 69% of Republicans think tariffs would be “worth it” if it accomplished those two goals. Just 21% of Democrats and 29% of independent voters agree.
In his inaugural address, Trump said he would “overhaul” the U.S. trade system to “protect American workers and families.” But the broad objection to tariffs, especially on the left and among independents, suggests the president might soon have a PR crisis on his hands.
Americans credit Trump for ceasefire
Last week, Israel and Hamas tentatively agreed on a ceasefire deal, which includes releasing hostages and halting the brutal warfare that decimated much of the Gaza Strip. If all goes to plan, there will be no fighting in Gaza for at least six weeks and dozens of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners will be freed.
After a deal was announced by negotiators, Trump attempted to take sole credit for it. As absurd as his claim was, Americans seem to largely agree with his spin.
A new report from Data for Progress finds that 49% of likely voters credit Trump more than Biden for the ceasefire. Only 44% credit Biden more, even though the current deal mirrors one the now-former president proposed last year.
Most of that is driven by partisanship. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (82%) say Biden should be credited more, while an almost equal number of Republicans (85%) give Trump plaudits. Independents lean toward crediting Trump, though, with 53% crediting him more and only 38% crediting Biden more.
Moreover, Data for Progress finds that Biden ended his presidency with a -18-point approval rating on his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, while Trump starts his new term with a +12-point approval rating on the issue.
While it’s a matter of dispute whether Trump deserves full or half or 10% credit, it is clear that he helped in some way. First, Trump warned that “all hell” would break loose in the Middle East if Hamas did not release the hostages before his inauguration. Second, Trump’s team was involved in the negotiation process and pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make concessions and agree to the deal.
Meanwhile, the poll also finds that 78% of likely voters at least somewhat support the ceasefire deal. And that sentiment is true across party lines, with 84% of Democrats, 76% of independents, and 73% of Republicans on board.
Any updates?
- Daily Kos has extensively covered the GOP’s crusade against diversity, equity, and inclusion programs. However, nearly half of Americans (48%) have a favorable view of DEI programs, according to new polling from YouGov. And only 29% have an unfavorable view of the programs.
- The old guard of the Democratic Party seems largely unwilling to pass the torch to its younger members, as Daily Kos reported in December. But Congress itself has improved in at least one respect: 26% of its voting members identify as a race or ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White, according to the Pew Research Center. That makes the 119th Congress the most racially and ethnically diverse one to date—but still not representative of the country at large, which is 58% non-Hispanic white.
Vibe check
Donald Trump begins his new term as president with 53% of registered voters having an unfavorable view of him, while 45% have a favorable view, according to Civiqs data as of Friday.
Andrew Mangan contributed research.
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