Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.

The great uninformed

In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by more than 7 million votes nationally—over three times as many votes as Trump’s 2024 margin over Democrat Kamala Harris. You might be surprised how many Americans think the opposite is true.

Nearly half of Americans (49%) incorrectly think Trump scored a wider popular-vote margin last year than Biden did in 2020, according to new polling from YouGov. Only 28% correctly think Biden won by a larger margin. Wilder yet, one in four Democrats (26%) and nearly one-half of independents (46%) wrongly think Trump’s popular-vote margin was larger in 2024 than Biden’s in 2020.

Republicans appear to be the most confident, with only 9% saying they aren’t sure about whose popular-vote win was bigger, compared with 19% of Democrats and 27% of independents. Republicans are also the most wrong: 79% incorrectly say Trump won by a larger margin than Biden.

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This factual confusion could be why, despite Trump’s much smaller popular-vote victory, YouGov finds that 51% of Americans think Trump currently has a bigger public mandate than Biden did to carry out their respective policy agendas. That includes 25% of Democrats who think Trump has the bigger mandate—roughly the same share that thinks Trump won a bigger popular-vote margin.

Trump’s 2024 victory clearly feels different to folks. We have liberals self-flagellating, Republicans gloating, and independents thinking … whatever it is that independents think.

But chances are, those feelings will wane with time. 

After all, 54% of Americans had a favorable view of Biden as of Feb. 3, 2021, according to the earliest data available in 538’s polling average. And with only 40% of Americans having had an unfavorable view, Biden started his presidency with a massive 24-point honeymoon margin. Biden enjoyed a net-positive approval rating until September 2021, amid his administration’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. (That said, the American public did support the concept of withdrawing troops from the country.)

However, Trump entered his new presidency with a net-negative favorability rating. 538’s average finds that 48% have an unfavorable view of him, while 47% have a favorable view, as of Friday.

All this to say, if this is Trump’s honeymoon, he’s in for a very bad marriage.

Christian nationalism not so national after all

With Trump in the White House, Christian nationalism has perhaps never seemed more ascendant. And yet … very, very few Americans believe in that ideology, according to a new study from the Pew Research Center.

Just 6% of Americans fit the definition of a Christian nationalist. While acknowledging that “there is no universally accepted definition of religious nationalism,” Pew determined whether a survey respondent was a Christian nationalist if they agree that:

Being a Christian is very important to being truly American;And it is very important that the U.S. president shares their religious beliefs;And the Bible should have at least some influence over U.S. laws;And when the Bible conflicts with the will of the people, the Bible should have more influence.

Compare that to the 58% of Americans who are Christian but don’t fit the definition of a Christian nationalist.

What’s more, only 18% of U.S. adults say being a Christian is “very important” to being an American, according to Pew. Meanwhile, higher shares of adults say being born in the U.S. (24%), sharing the country’s traditions and customs (34%), and speaking English (48%) are very important to being American.

That said, the U.S. stands out in two unusual ways among the wealthy countries surveyed. First, Americans are far more likely to claim the Bible currently has at least a fair amount of influence over U.S. law. Second, they’re also more likely to believe the Bible should have that influence.

To know how much the Founding Fathers agreed with that sentiment, you need only consult the very First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.”

Pardon me?

January 2025 was a pardon-palooza. First, then-President Joe Biden preemptively pardoned people Trump had promised to go after in his second term. Then, once Trump reinstalled his Diet Coke button on the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office, he started chucking out pardons to violent criminals, including the roughly 1,500 felons who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. 

What do Americans think of all those pardons? Generally, they’re not fans.

When it comes to Trump pardoning insurrectionists, 57% of registered voters disapprove and 37% approve, according to a Quinnipiac University poll fielded Jan. 23-27. That puts those pardons 20 points underwater.

However, 62% of voters disapprove of Biden preemptively pardoning five family members who hadn’t been charged with a crime. Only 31% approve. That puts these pardons 31 points underwater—11 points worse than Trump pardoning literal rioters.

On the good-ish side of things, voters have a more positive view of Biden’s other preemptive pardons, which went to figures like Dr. Anthony Fauci and retired Gen. Mark Milley. Overall, 42% approve of those pardons, while 44% disapprove—so, 2 points underwater. 

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But the way Quinnipiac phrased the question was lacking in one potentially key way. 

The poll question described Biden’s nonfamily pardons as going to “some people who President Trump had targeted for retaliation.” But when asking about the family pardons, the university described them as going to “five members of his family who haven't been charged with any crimes”—without specifying Trump and Republican lawmakers also planned to target Biden’s family. 

“I will appoint a real special prosecutor to go after the most corrupt president in the history of the United States of America, Joe Biden, and the entire Biden crime family,” Trump said in June 2023.

Of course, Trump’s promise came before the Supreme Court ruled that presidents are basically kings, meaning that the don of that supposed crime family, one Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., will undoubtedly walk free.

Any updates?

• Daily Kos has reported extensively on Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the anti-vaccine nutjob whom Trump tapped to lead—what else?—the Department of Health and Human Services. And his nomination is likely part of why 54% of Americans are very or extremely concerned about disease outbreaks that could stem from parents refusing to get their kids vaccinated, according to new polling from the Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Only 18% are not very or not at all concerned.
• Speaking of Trump’s awful Cabinet, newly minted Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has spoken out against women in the military serving in combat roles, as Daily Kos has covered. And yet two-thirds of Americans (67%) think the opposite, with 43% “strongly” supporting women’s ability to serve in combat, according to a new YouGov poll.

Vibe check

A plurality of registered voters (49%) support electing the president via a national popular vote, while 45% prefer the current Electoral College system, according to Civiqs data as of Friday. Civiqs’ data goes back to July 2023, and not once in that data has the Electoral College been more preferred than a national popular vote.

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